According to a mathematical historian, our civilization may be heading for a collapse. The scholar predicts ‘political turmoil’ will peak in the 2020’s.
According to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, using a simple equation we can predict the RISE and FALL of all civilizations, and ours is in for a fall sometime soon.
If Professor Turchin’s calculations are proven right, our planet better be prepared for years –if not decades— of political unrest that could even peak during the next century.
Professor Turchin, who specializes in Ecology and Mathematics has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called ‘cliodynamics.’
‘Cliodynamics is a new ‘transdisciplinary discipline’ that treats history as just another science,’ Professor Turchin says.
Professor Turchin began using mathematics to predict human activity from around 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.
Around three years ago, Professor Turchin used similar models to forecast the future.
My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s.
Furthermore, Professor Turchin states that:
The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. And although the election is over, the deep structural forces that brought us the current political crisis have not gone away. If anything, the negative trends seem to be accelerating.
However, Professor Turchin warns that it is not known WHEN this peak might occur and that his theory does NOT predict events, but trends.
Professor Turchin states that the turmoil would be kick-started by the process of ‘elite overproduction’ in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger, and they become ever more distant from those poorer.
“It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. But it did predict rising social and political instability. And, unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.”
However, professor Turchin states that his theory could actually prove to be beneficial, and may help us avoid and escape this grim fate by closely monitoring the trends and avoiding them before they are able to cause problems for society.
“The descent is not inevitable,’ he continued. Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst – perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.”
Interestingly, an unrelated NASA-funded study has found that ADVANCED ancient civilizations that existed on Earth thousands of years ago were as susceptible to collapse as WE are today.
If we look back in history 3000–5000 years, we will find a historical record that clearly shows us how advanced and sophisticated civilizations were just as susceptible to collapse as we are today.
While lifestyles were much different in the distant past than they are today, it turns out that there is an ongoing pattern encrusted into humanity that raises numerous questions about our sustainability as a civilization which ultimately challenges our ability to stay ‘afloat’ as a complex society and culture.
If we look back in time over 10,000 years, we will discover that numerous advanced civilizations that predate the Inca, Olmec, and Egyptian civilization existed on Earth which mysteriously vanished without a trace.
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